RESEARCH NOTE

How to Measure Promotion Speed in Sumo Across Different Entry Routes

Last verified: 3 Sep 2026Linked sources support only the corresponding claims in this article. Times, prices and venue operations can change, so check the current linked guidance before travelling.
A small path leading towards a dohyo, with a viewing notebook.

Report both the number of actual tournaments and the calendar time from a declared starting basho to the first banzuke carrying the target rank. Keep juryo, makuuchi, sanyaku and ozeki endpoints separate. Record tsukedashi entry, absences, time off the rankings and interrupted schedules rather than hiding them inside one speed ranking.

Official wrestler profiles identify milestones such as professional debut, new juryo and new makuuchi. Confirm first appearance at the target rank in the banzuke and use the official schedule to order tournaments. “Number of tournaments” is not safely calculated by dividing a date interval by two months; count the tournaments that actually occurred.

Fix the start and finish

One workable start is the debut tournament and the finish is the first ranking announcement showing the target rank. Starting with the first printed banzuke appearance instead can shift the result, so never alternate between definitions. Likewise, reaching juryo on a published ranking and contesting the first juryo bout are different events.

Tsukedashi entrants begin at a different point in the ranking system. Combining them with wrestlers who start through maezumo can turn an entry-rule difference into a story about talent. Stratify by entry route or show a clear flag. For absences, preserve two clocks: tournaments elapsed in real career time and tournaments in which the wrestler recorded a bout.

Keep wrestlers who have not arrived

If the sample contains only wrestlers who reached the target, it necessarily favours successful and often faster paths. A descriptive article must say “among wrestlers who reached this rank” and resist generalizing to every entrant. Formal research can treat current non-attainment as censored observation, but active and retired careers still need comparable observation windows. Freeze the population by entry interval, entry route, target rank and extraction date. Report failed profile-to-banzuke joins as missing, and treat active non-attainment as right-censored at the cutoff rather than a failure.

Rule changes and cancelled or altered tournaments create historical boundaries. Publish separate cohorts when necessary. A historical fastest promotion is a record under its conditions, not a prediction for a current rookie.

Follow the route, not only the race

A promotion line that looks straight in a summary often contains plateaus and reversals. On the next banzuke, choose one wrestler and watch what changes at the current rank rather than treating the next title as inevitable. The experiments visible in stance, first contact and recovery are usually more absorbing than a leaderboard of who arrived fastest.

Counterevidence and the Update Trigger

The result is limited to the stated period, population and missing-data treatment. An official correction, a newly completed tournament, a changed exclusion rule or a failed recalculation is an update trigger. Preserve the previous value, reason for change and recalculation date; do not strengthen a conclusion using only convenient new records. Recalculate from the same source rows with debut and first-banzuke starts, and compare arrivals-only with right-censored specifications as falsification tests. If rankings are unstable, the alternative conclusion is that promotion speed is definition-sensitive.

Sources

  • Japan Sumo Association, wrestler search, banzuke table, and annual schedule (checked 3 September 2026; update after ranking announcements).

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